Autumn's Contrarian Ideas

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- There have been some big market moves recently. Contrarians try to identify possible reversals. My initial contrarian portfolio of this summer was disappointing, yielding a return of 1.79%. More aggressive risk management will be applied this fall to try to improve returns.

Idea No. 1 -- Buy Natural Gas

The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG Quote) has had a remarkable run lower the past 12 months. It has dropped to $11.68 as of Sept. 24, from a close of $36.45 a year earlier. That's a decline of 68%. See the following chart.

UNG Source: Stockcharts.com

The past three weeks are the first time in a year that three advances in a row have occurred and the last two weeks have highs tight against the linear resistance line. Now is a good time to open a position in opposition to the year-long trend with a market order. A trailing 15% stop loss order will be placed.

We also will track First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG Quote), which invests in stocks that track the index after which the investment is named. This investment has a one-year loss of 20%, compared with the 68% loss for UNG.

Idea No. 2 -- Buy North American Energy Production

This sector has declined in four of the past six quarters and is basically unchanged so far in the current quarter. My choice to play this sector is Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF Quote). This Calgary based, open-end investment trust, which owns a number of oil and natural gas producing properties in Canada and the U.S., currently pays a 9% dividend. This is likely to be reduced by 2013, when ERF probably will convert to a traditional corporate structure. For the contrarian portfolio, ERF will be bought at the market and a 10% trailing stop loss order kept in place.

Idea No. 3 - Buy Silver