Investing Opinion

Summer Contrarian Close-Out

Stock quotes in this article:SKF, XLV 

Ultrashort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) was used for this strategy. It was closed on the stop loss order specified in the July 14 article for a loss of 5.14% on July 15. This was another well- timed stop loss. SRS has lost another 44% after the sale.

Buy the Dollar

This position used PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish(UUP). It was closed on Aug. 1 for a 3.17% loss (stop loss order placed on July 14). At market close on Sept. 11, UUP was down an additional 17%.

Buy the NASDAQ 100, Sell the S&P 500

This position used 2 times leveraged ETFs: Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) and UltraShort S&P500 ProShares(SDS). Since May 26, QLD has gained 40.54% and short SDS has lost 27.55%; the combined return for the hedged position is 6.49% as of market close on Sept. 11. I closed this trade on Sept. 11.

Buy Treasuries or Sell Treasuries -- You Pick 'Em

The two positions here are iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) or UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT) (two times short) tracking long-term Treasury bonds. The loss for TBT is 7.72% after being stopped out (15% trailing stop) on June 26. As of Sept. 11, TLT was ahead 6.29%.

The summary of all contrarian positions as of Sept. 11 is shown in the following table. In a few days I'll have available my contrarian picks for the fall.


Source: StockCharts.com

-- Written by John Lounsbury in Clayton, N.C.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

At the time of publication, Lounsbury had positions in SKF. Clients and family members also currently own Vanguard Health Care, a mutual fund invested in many of the same stocks as XLV.

John B. Lounsbury is a financial planner and investment adviser, providing comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a select group of families on a fee-only basis. He worked for 34 years with IBM, and spent 25 years in R&D management and corporate staff positions. He also was a Series 6, 7, 63 licensed representative with a major insurance company brokerage for nine years.

Specific interests include political and economic history and investment strategy analysis. He holds degrees from the University of Vermont, Columbia University and the Illinois Institute of Technology, where he studied chemistry, physics and mathematics. He is a contributor to Seeking Alpha and his own blog, PiedmontHudson.

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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
12,454.83 1,317.82 2,837.53 17.45
Oil *
107.26
DOWN
74.92
DOWN
2.86
DOWN
1.85
DOWN
0.14
10 Yr
1.74%
SPDR Gold
152.68
-0.60%
-0.22%
-0.07%
-0.80%
Data delayed 20 minutes

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