It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision to which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible.This morning's opening missive will address top-down market valuation, explain why I believe the price-to-earnings multiple expansion beginning six months ago appears to be coming to an end and then go on to recap the forces that make me more bearish on corporate profits vis-a-vis the emerging and more bullish consensus. Given that the First Call total of S&P operating earnings for the first half of this year was about $30.50 a share and is estimated at $15 a share for the third quarter ending Sept. 30, 2009, it is safe to say that 2009 S&P operating profits will approximate $62 a share. First Call consensus S&P earnings forecasts for 2010 now run around $72 to $74 a share, for a gain of almost 18% year over year.
Kass: Bearish Arguments Are Roaring
Check Out Our Best Services for Investors
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Model portfolio
- Stocks trading below $10
- Intraday trade alerts
Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutinyquantitative, fundamental and technical analysisto maximize profit potential and minimize risk.
More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.