Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

• reality vs. spin,
• the new kind of market, and
• why natural gas is so hated.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

---

Market Reality Is Stronger Than Spin
Posted at 10:59 a.m. EDT, Sept. 9, 2009

We are now up 51% from the bottom reached six months ago. No matter how much we go up, no matter what velocity we go up at, I continue to hear that this is all a rally in a bear market, unconfirmed by anything. To me it is the greatest rally I can ever recall. That's right, the greatest rally I have ever seen.

But it has no believers who are audible, at least, or noisy. No one wants to champion a market anymore. Too likely to be criticized if the market turns down, even if you have nailed the gain off the bottom. It ain't worth it.

Still we need to figure out how we can go up 51% in the face of the negative news flow. Here is my attempt to do so. I think it has to do with the spin on the news, not the news itself.

Every day we see financial news spun wildly negative, news that I spin positive, because, like in my four-part series, I need to justify to myself why the market is taking an opposite tack to the tone and conclusions that the media has reached.

Of course, it isn't just the media. There are many on the site who agree with the media's take, and that, too, needs refutation to stay bullish, or at least to agree with the movements of the stocks on my screen. I am not a dig-my-heels-in guy, and if the news eventually cannot be spun negative, I will join my friend Doug Kass in a belief that we are done going up. But I want to refute some of the spins I see every day and state how these are issues that the market's viewing as I do.

First, the "jobless recovery." This has become the most common and perceived wisdom on earth. I question it, because, as my friend Michael Cembalist points out in his vital Eye on the Markets publication that I get as a client of JP Morgan, "the gap between manufacturing orders (high) and inventories (low) a predictor of goods/labor is at its highest level since 1975." Given that scenario, I cannot continue to believe that employment will stay low. That inventory differential is remarkable, just remarkable, and I cannot risk denying it. You have to incorporate the supply and demand in your thinking. It could lead to monster GDP growth and very big hiring.