Insana: Iran's a Time Bomb

Many say "P-Shah!" But I would hate to say, "Ayatollah so!" if this situation deteriorates. My bet is that tensions will rise as we approach the end of September, when the U.S. and U.N. have imposed a deadline for Iran to come to the negotiating table and give up its plans to weaponize nuclear material and work with the West to use nuclear fuel for peaceful, civilian purposes only. Not in this lifetime.

Iran does not appear to take the West seriously, and while it has slowed the pace of enrichment, the U.S. is reading this as a sign of internal political struggles, while Israel thinks the race for the bomb is on.

I'd bet on Israel's intelligence any day, despite their usually hawkish view of any and all geopolitical risks, most of which are deemed existential threats ... and not without good reason. Their field work is superior to ours, and my own sources see a conflict, or at least a tension-inducing stalemate, as inevitable.

I told subscribers of my "Market Movers" newsletter Thursday morning that I purchased 1,000 shares of the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), which tracks the energy sector index. I may have more moves to come, and subscribers will be alerted if I decide to take more action on oil.

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