Speaking of Antigenics, Stan M. takes issue with my valuation metrics for the company's vaccine adjuvant candidate Q21.
"Your low-ball estimates for Antigenics royalty income from QS21 are ridiculous, especially when the company has already told us that it expects $500 million in peak royalty revenue," writes Stan, adding. "Get a life!"
Sorry, that's wrong. What Antigenics' CFO Shalini Sharp said Wednesday was that $500 million in royalty revenue represented the total market potential if all QS21-containing vaccines garnered 100% market share in malaria, flu, cancer etc.She did not say that Antigenics expects to receive $500 million in royalty revenue from QS21. Think about it this way: If Antigenics received a 3.5% royalty (low-single digits) on sales of all QS21-containing vaccines, it would take more than $14 billion in vaccine sales to kick back $500 million in royalty revenue. You believe Antigenics' partners are working on $14 billion worth of peak vaccine sales? Really?
Lastly, I remember Bill Meehan on this day.