Cramer: The State of the Market, Part IV

This is the final story in a four-part series about what groups are working as we begin to wind down 2009. Be sure to read the first, second and third parts. The series originally appeared Tuesday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Group 7: Autos. If there were a single positive piece about what "Cash for Clunkers" meant to this industry, I didn't read it. But I know what it meant to the lone public automaker -- a gigantic chance to clean up inventories and take market share for Ford Motor (F Quote). I am downright bullish about this company -- I prefer the preferred, which has been a phenomenal performer -- and I think that we could experience a 25% increase in auto builds in 2010 over 2009, which will mean very big numbers for the automaker.

Ford (F)

I am playing this more-than-a-bounce with Johnson Controls (JCI Quote), my newest buy for Action Alerts PLUS, as I think it will begin to put up gigantic numbers as that auto build increases. Unfortunately, there are not enough public plays on the auto trend, which makes it much less discernable. Given the devastation of this industry in 2009, though, you can see why these stocks are moving. Next year just can't be as bad as this year -- a continual and universal theme for many of the companies I follow.

Johnson Controls (JCI)

Group 8: Creation and transport of packages. Few groups are as economically sensitive as corrugated and shipping. They have always foretold better or worse times. Go look at the stocks of International Paper (IP Quote), Pactiv (PTV Quote) and Temple-Inland (TIN Quote). These are not moves that simply revolve around short-covering. They are gigantic moves predicated on more packages moving throughout the system, something that Con-way (CNW Quote), the trucker, and FedEx (FDX Quote), the shipper, confirmed a very long time ago. Do not ignore these indicators. They were the first things that moved after the 1987 crash and they are signaling not just strength but a possible boom.

International Paper (IP)

Con-way (CNW)

FedEx (FDX)

I look at these stocks as indicators of potential GDP growth, and they are signaling mid-single-digit growth coming by the fourth quarter. You cannot get that kind of growth and not get employment growth, especially if the single biggest impediment to hiring -- the health care plan of the president -- turns out to be moribund.