I agree with Jim (and many others) that growth will be subpar. Where Jim and I seem to part company is that, given the headwinds, my baseline expectation is one of uneven, inconsistent and lumpy growth for some time to come, difficult for corporate managers (who no longer have pricing power) and investment managers to navigate. It might very well look like we are coming out of recession in one quarter and then one or two quarters later appear that we are going back into recession. Unlike bulls (such as Jim), I don't see "smoothness" in the years ahead, and a healthy skepticism, if not rewarded in an absolute sense, should keep an investor out of trouble and from making big mistakes in 2009 and beyond.
I have suggested (prematurely!) that this is not an outlook that provides support to a normal or outsized exposure to equities and credit, which have been the World's Fair since March when I made the generational bottom call.
I will end on the following important note. It should be recognized that Jim has been very right about a continued market rally, and I have admittedly been way wrong!
Stay tuned!Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver , a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here. At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Know what you own: Some of Tuesday's most active stocks in premarket trading include Freddie Mac (FRE), Citigroup (C), American Capital Agency (AGNC), Rentech (RTC), SPDRs (SPY), General Electric (GE) and CIT Group (CIT).