Shorting European Insurers

ZUG, Switzerland (TheStreet.com) -- Amazing how we have seen company valuations go from dirt cheap to stupidly overpriced, in a matter of just a few months.

While no one contests that the market's first leg up from its March lows was necessary and logical, what is happening now is too much too fast. In March, price levels had nothing to do with fundamentals and more to do with the hysterical state of investor sentiment.

Leverage had been sucked out, and forced selling had pushed valuations of many good companies to below tangible book value. This current rally has panic-buying written all over it.

From my European perspective, I'd like to point out insurance as a sector with some outstanding short opportunities. While U.S. insurers like Met Life(MET) and Lincoln(LNC) have addressed their capital issues, the situation in Europe is different.

A perfect example of mismanaged high-beta junk is Swiss Life Holding, whose shares are up 120% from their March lows. German insurance giant Allianz(AZ), up 50% from its lows, has excellent management and fewer strategic issues, but the market is underestimating the tough fundamentals it faces. Both stocks make excellent short opportunities.

Investors have been pushing up valuations on companies with structural and strategic issues that have yet to prove earnings momentum is anywhere near turning.

In fact, rising bond yields will pressure shareholder equity and solvency ratios, forcing some of the weaker companies into capital raising measures. Allianz has had to inject $1 billion into its U.S. life unit to avoid ratings agency downgrades. The company is adamant that capital constraints aren't an issue, but the outlook for pricing in the property and casualty market is bleak. Very soon the market will ask itself again if there isn't the need to raise capital after all.