Odds, Analysts Against Human Genome's Lupus Drug

Perhaps the biotech understatement of the year: Analysts are hating Human Genome Sciences(HGSI) ahead of the company's release of results from a key lupus drug study next week.

The sell-side community tends to be an optimistic lot, which is why the near-universal negativity directed at Human Genome's drug Benlysta (formerly lymphostat-B) by almost every analyst covering the company cuts against the grain.

Human Genome will be releasing results from the Benlysta phase III study in lupus patients before the opening bell on Monday, July 20.

A chorus of analysts says the study is going to fail.

"We continue to believe the probability that Lymphostat-B succeeds is extremely low, wrote an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets on Tuesday, tacking a sell rating and a $1 price target to the stock.

On Monday, UBS downgraded Human Genome to neutral from buy. "We believe significant downside risk exists with the read-out of the BLISS-52 data later this month," wrote UBS. BLISS-52 is the name of the Benlysta study.

Barclays Capital, from a July 6 report: "Benlysta likely to fail BLISS studies."

Piper Jaffray's analyst chimed in on Monday, calling the Benlysta study "hard to call but find risk reward unfavorable."

Also expressing skepticism and caution on Human Genome in recent weeks were analysts from Citibank, Sanford Bernstein and JMP Securities.

The only positive view of Benlysta appears to be emanating from the analyst at Leerink Swann, who gives the drug a 60% chance for success. That's enough to rate the stock outperform. SummerStreet Research Partners, which rates Human Genome neutral, calls the odds of success for Benlysta "50/50 at best" in a report issued Wednesday.