Investing Opinion
Contrarian Ideas Updated
Buy Treasuries or Sell Treasuries -- You Pick 'em
The two positions here are iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) (long) or UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT) (two times short) tracking long-term Treasury bonds. The results since May 26 have favored going long. The gain for TLT has been 0.62%, including dividends, while the loss for TBT is 7.72% after being stopped out (15% trailing stop) on June 26. I have a stop-loss on TLT of $91.97, based on a trailing stop of 5%, tightened from the former 7.5% stop. The summary of all contrarian positions as of Tuesday is shown in the table below. All positions, but one, are still open using the risk-control guidelines suggested. That doesn't often happen for my contrarian attempts over this long a period, which is seven and a half weeks to this point.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,393.45 | 1,310.33 | 2,827.34 | 15.81 |
Oil *
101.78
|
|
DOWN
26.41 |
DOWN
2.99 |
DOWN
10.02 |
DOWN
0.44 |
10 Yr
1.58%
SPDR Gold
151.62
|
|
-0.21%
|
-0.23%
|
-0.35%
|
-2.71%
|
Data delayed 20 minutes |
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