The Next Wireless Paradigm: Data Delivery

There will be a wide variety of responses to these new cheaper and more flexible software-driven calling plans. For example, operators themselves could offer VoIP plans of their own, banking on superior integration and ease of use.

Still, other operators will be forced to simply cut prices on their regular circuit-switched voice plans, which is possible given that this equipment is already installed and the variable absolute cost is falling. What is not falling is the opportunity cost of use for the spectrum, where the demand for data is rising dramatically.

Clearwire(CLWR) has started to roll out data service in its four initial WiMax markets (Portland, Baltimore, Atlanta and Las Vegas) over the last nine months, and will be launched in numerous of the country's largest cities by the end of 2010.

Clearwire has no legacy mobile voice offering and has no publicly announced intention to offer any such. Rather, it's an all-IP low-latency network that's tailor-made for supporting 3rd party voice software, such as Skype, on the handsets.

With no legacy business to protect, it would be very surprising not to see Google/Android-based WiMax smartphones offered on Clearwire, and running VoIP services such as Skype, no later than 2011. Remember, Google is a major investor in Clearwire, and Intel(INTC) and Cisco(CSCO) are both very supportive of this paradigm.

I was very early in asserting this thesis in 2003, but we are now only a year or two away from this paradigm emerging in full bloom.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints