Has the Market Recharged Yet?

Almost four weeks ago I wrote an article titled "This Rally Looks Tired"; the day after the article appeared, the S&P 500 reached its high for the rally that started on March 10. The exact timing was a matter of luck, but the signals that the rally had run out of steam were clear and many others who identified the same market conditions were cited in the article.

The question today is: If the market was tired in June, has it rested enough now to become more energetic again? The answer is complicated by the start of earnings season on Wednesday, July 8. Because of these complications, this is the obvious time to try to sort out the situation. The coming several days will go a long way to drawing a map for the rest of July and possibly August as well. I see serious stresses that will need to be overcome for the market to resume its rally.

The decline in relative strength of the S&P 500 from the high the first week of May has continued. The decline in MACD has accelerated since the June 11 article. The declining daily volume trends have continued. The behavior noted previously for higher volume on down days has also continued. The one exception (noted with blue arrows) on June 19 was not a down day, but displayed a candlestick pattern known as a "doji," an indicator of indecision in the market.

S&P 500 (SPX) Source: StockCharts.com

The gap up day on May 29 to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time in months (noted with the blue square) was filled with the move down on June 16. Twice in the past few weeks there have been bearish engulfing patterns for the S&P 500. These were not patterns for consecutive days, which is the traditional definition, but based on multiday patterns.