GM Can Purr After Tune-Up

Updated with closing stock prices

General Motors (GMGMQ) could emerge from bankruptcy as soon as Thursday with a promising outlook.

New GM will have coveted brands like Chevrolet and Cadillac. It will control close to 20% of all U.S. vehicle sales, down from the 51% share in 1962, but not so bad for a new business. Its costs are lower, its debt has been reduced and it will likely have sailed through a complex bankruptcy in just 39 days -- despite the 850 objections raised in court.

"Operationally, financially, GM will be in a much better situation than three months ago," says Tom Libby, an independent auto industry analyst. "They are going to be all right," says John Wolkonowicz, senior auto analyst at IHS Global Insight.

GM's emergence comes as the auto industry is seemingly starting to recover from a low point in the auto-sales cycle, with seasonally adjusted annual domestic vehicle sales around 10 million, based on June sales figures. The last time North American vehicle sales slipped below 10.5 million was 1982, when they totaled 10.3 million, according to J.D. Power. The last time they were below 10 million was 1970, when sales totaled 9.8 million, J.D. Power says.

"The industry will recover," Libby says. "It will go back up to 12 or 13 million and then to 15 million, but nobody knows when that is going to occur. What GM has to do is to keep their break-even at 10 million, which is what they have said they will do. They have to be rigorous and disciplined in not allowing their costs to rise."

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