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The short sellers of insurance stocks are back. Taking the most heat is Citizens(CIA Quote), with a short interest ratio of 17.6, up 3.8 in a week. Citizens, however, has outperformed its peers, and analysts' consensus price target for 2009 is $9. Someone has got it wrong.
The largest increase in short interest, up 5.7 to 12.9, was in Ambac Financial Group(ABK Quote), recently declared solvent by Wisconsin's insurance regulator after it abandoned its attempts to create a separate corporate bond insurance company. It's struggling to reach an agreement over its guarantee for swaps between UBS(UBS Quote) and the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority following Moody's downgrade.
Primus Guarantee(PRS Quote), a volatile stock with a beta of 1.7, has a short interest ratio of 15.4, an increase of 4. The shares have fallen 30% during the past year. Maybe some believe the credit swap insurance market is exposed. Certainly, Primus was displeased and asked that its ratings be withdrawn last month when Standard & Poor's downgraded the company.
Auto insurer Mercury General(MCY Quote) received a negative outlook from Moody's last month after it received approval for a 3% rate cut in its California market. It holds third place behind State Farm and Zurich Financial Services' Farmers Group, which completed the purchase of American International Group's(AIG Quote) car insurance subsidiary, 21st Century, on July 1. That competitive situation appears to have some nervous, as rate reductions keep receiving approvals. With a short interest ratio of 12.6, up 3.7 in the week, even this company with a low-volatility beta of 0.83 faces an examination.
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