Top Takes From RealMoney

The RealMoney contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that RealMoney contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.

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All Eyes on the Fed

By Tom Graff
06/22/09 7:09 a.m. Expect bond market volume to be muted early this week as traders will wait to see what the Fed says on Wednesday. I'd say the consensus is for:

1. No change in rate, and no hint about when a rate change might be coming.
2. Some upgrade of the economic outlook, but to have it couched in very tenative terms.
3. No additional Treasury bond purchase programs.
4. Possibly some expansion (or hint of an expansion) of the Agency/MBS programs.

If the Fed's statement seems more bullish on the economy and/or more worried about inflation, even without any particular hint about hiking rates, the front end of the yield curve will sell off sharply. The long end will perform better, flattening the curve substantially.

If the Fed is less upbeat and/or announced an expansion of any of their major programs (QE or TALF), the front end probably rallies.

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Selling ATVI

By Tim Melvin
06/22/09 8:48 a.m.

While flipping through Barron's this weekend, I noted a very large sale of stock at Activision Blizzard(ATVI Quote). I like this company as a way to play the long-term trends in the home gaming industry and the "staycation" theme in general, but I do not like insider selling.

The company CEO, Michael Griffith, sold 1.6 million shares last week. Although the bulk of the shares were from options grants, he sold them the minute they were vested, leaving him with just 100,000 shares in the company. The stock has had a good run since I originally suggested it a few months back, and it is time to either let the shares go and take gains or sell calls against a long position.