World Bank Cuts '09 Global Forecast

By Joe McDonald

BEIJING -- The World Bank has cut its 2009 global growth forecast, saying the world economy will shrink by 2.9% and warning that a drop in investment in developing countries will increase poverty.

"The global recession has deepened," the Washington-based multilateral lender said in a report.

Global trade is expected to plunge by 9.7% this year, while total gross domestic product for high-income countries contracts by 4.2%, the bank said. It said economic growth in developing countries should slow to 1.2% -- but excluding relatively strong China and India, developing economies will contract by 1.6%.

The bank's latest forecast is a sharp reduction from its March prediction of a 1.7% global contraction, which it said then would be the worst on record.

Economic damage to developing countries "has been much deeper and broader than previous crises," warned the report, issued Sunday in Washington.

"Unemployment is on the rise, and poverty is set to increase in developing economies," it said.

The global economy should start to grow again in late 2009, but "the expected recovery is projected to be much less vigorous than normal," the report said. It said banks' ability to finance investment and consumer spending would be hampered by the overhang of unpaid loans and devalued assets.

"To break the cycle and revive lending and growth, bold policy measures, along with substantial international coordination, are needed," the World Bank said.

Investment and other financial flows to developing countries plunged by an estimated 39% in 2008 to $707 billion, the World Bank said. It said foreign direct investment in developing countries is projected to drop by 30% this year to $385 billion.