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Biotech Stock Mailbag: Gleaming the Cubist


Next up, an email from Fareed H., who writes, "We know you don't like Cell Therapeutics, but the company has to be worth something. What's your price target on the stock?"

I did some quick calculations and came up with a fair value for Cell Therapeutics in the range of 20 cents to 30 cents a share.

This valuation takes into account the lowered debt level and assumes the cancer drug pixantrone is approved (risk adjusted to 85%) and does $100 million in peak sales. I give no value to Opaxio because I don't believe that drug is approvable ever, nor did I give the company any credit for whatever else sits in the pipeline.

Obviously, the value of Cell Therapeutics rises if pixantrone does better or if something else from the company's pipeline is a success. At this point, I believe assuming $100 million in pixantrone sales is a generous forecast.


Jonathan L. isn't impressed with my biotech stocks picks from last week or the performance of my model portfolio.

"Your portfolio was up only 21%, what a joke. I can close my eyes throw a dart and beat 21%, and you're the one with a platform to give stock advice. What a joke. The only thing you're good at is destroying the wealth of everyday Americans after the worst economic disaster since the Depression. What you do is no less than stealing food off the tables of hard working [sic] American investors. What a joke. Let me guess next time Cell Therapeutics or Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) come out with good news you're going to bash them to get the stock price down, so you're [sic] hedge buddies can pick up cheap shares by costing real Americans thousands if not millions. I bet you've never worked a day in your life. You look like a [bleeping] worm. I just had to throw in that last comment. Have a nice day."

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