World Bank Ups China '09 Growth Forecast

 

"China had earned an enormous amount of goodwill and was leading the charge globally to make sure protectionism did not take off," Hansson said. "I think that position, that leadership reflected an understanding that China, relative to many other economies, has a lot more to lose from protectionism given the importance of the export sector."

The World Bank report highlighted China's dependence on government spending to support growth.

The stimulus will supply up to 6% percentage points of this year's expansion, with private activity producing 3.6% percentage points, according to Louis Kuijs, a World Bank economist. He said the contraction in exports will be severe that trade will subtract 2.4% percentage points from this year's growth, resulting in the forecast total of 7.2%.

"We see very little growth coming out of the market-based economy in 2009," Kuijs said. "We do expect a nice pickup in exports next year, so that will help."

Government spending boosted domestic investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets by 32.9% in the first five months of the year.

The World Bank cautioned there was a limit to how much China could buck global trends through stimulus spending while exports are weak.

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