Media Chiefs See Ad Biz Bottom; Data Doesn't

The advertising recession continues apace, according to new data released this past week, but media bosses have been striving to say otherwise.

Industry research groups Nielsen and TNS Media both released first-quarter ad-spending figures recently that showed precipitous declines across almost all categories -- print, radio, television, billboards.

According to TNS, which put out its numbers Wednesday, total newspaper ad spending fell 25.5%, radio fell 26% (which differed sharply from Nielson's estimate of a 12.6% decline in network radio), magazines dropped 20.5% and television retreated 9.7%, all compared with the year-earlier period. In sum, media companies took in $5 billion less in the first three months of 2009 than they did in 2008.

(Another significant point of difference between the two research bodies: TNS estimates that Internet spending on display ads increased by 8.2%; Nielson, however, says it fell by 3.4%.)

Even more worrisome, though, was the brief look ahead offered by TNS in its report. Based on available data, ad sales in the second quarter are declining at the same rate as the first.

Business, therefore, would actually seem to be getting worse.

That's not exactly surprising. Any time you have bankrupt car companies (collectively, the biggest ad buyers there are), that's not good for ad spending. Including dealers as well as manufacturers, auto ad spending in the quarter fell 28.4%, or $915 million, from last year, TNS estimates. In the near term, at least, it can only be expected to deteriorate further, as General Motors(GMGMQ Quote) and Chrysler emerge from Chapter 11 as leaner -- and thriftier -- entities.