The Secret of My Success: A Gary B. Smith Chat

Gary B. Smith chatted on Yahoo! Tuesday, August 22, at 5 p.m. EDT.

laura_the_street: Gary is here, and we are ready to go.

gsmith4: I am here, I am ready. But, I am most definitely NOT fond of Alan Greenspan!!

kevins1031 asks: Gary, who DO you think is doing Carly Fiorina's hair lately, anyway, and do you feel that which way she wears it will determine the near-term direction of HWP? Maybe even the market in general? I do.

gsmith4: Actually Jon Peters is doing Carly's hair. And I hear it's going to be a beehive, which means we'll have a market like the mid 60s!

Dowjobber asks: What is your current short/long ratio?

gsmith4: Today it was almost 50/50.

Illini_Investor asks: Hey Gary what do you think of LU?

gsmith4: PU

pshah2_00 asks: What are you buying right now?

gsmith4: Oh, this and that. Bought some RMBS today.

newbeetrader asks: What do you think of INTU, just announced good earnings and is trading higher in after hours. If you like it, how would you trade it? Thanks, Gary.

gsmith4: I'd be long with a stop under today's high. Looks good.

lboy222 asks: You said today on RealMoney today that BRCD is going higher. Where do you think it can go to?

gsmith4: $250 easy

judge_griz asks: What do you think about semiconductor stocks, in particular, KLIC? I bought in at 24.4, and have felt a lot of pain since, any thoughts?

gsmith4: I'd think about where to get out. Chart looks kind of grim

Dowjobber asks: Would you be buying GOAM on a buy stop at 11?

gsmith4: You're thinking that breaks the downtrend? Yeah, maybe.

sweatin_bullets asks: How do features of a chart pattern influence your choice of stop loss--such as selecting between either your standard 6% stop, a stop below resistance, or a stop below a recent low?

gsmith4: If the stock is volatile, I'll base my money mgmt. on the chart.

jayboydog asks: GBS: Cisco trades at 65, the sep70 call trades for $1. Can you infer something about the likelihood of Cisco Not moving up to 70 before expiration?

gsmith4: Wouldn't hazard a guess. Options not my strong suit.

Dowjobber asks: How does BSYS look to you?

gsmith4: Strong, but in need of a little rest.

shaun_j_farrell asks: Gary what do you think about investing in GLW (Corning INC.)

gsmith4: Strong chart, for sure.

pshah2_00 asks: Ask Gary how he feels about JNPR. He talked about it in his column this morning.

gsmith4: Was that a great call or what! Chart is way strong.

sektorian asks: What is your opinion on MP3's?

gsmith4: Gap up today, so that's good. I kind of like that action.

lboy222 asks: What is your thoughts on TIBX? It was up on pretty good volume today, maybe we have hit a bottom?

gsmith4: Looks like still in a downtrend, though.

Dowjobber asks: If you owned APC where would you place a stop?

gsmith4: Probably the mid-50s.

davidinil asks: Gary, love your column. Keep up the good work. Could I get your take on AZPN?

gsmith4: Thank you. AZPN has a nice little pennant. The kind you'd enter with a buy stop.

may_22kid asks: Gary your thoughts on TXCC and GLW please? Thanks.

gsmith4: TXCC is another strong stock. Might have another 10 points in it.

Dowjobber asks: Is it too late or early to buy RMBS or would you buy it with impunity?

gsmith4: You mean follow my lead? Lately I'd fade myself! But, seriously, maybe on a pullback.

Illini_Investor asks: What do you make of the Naz now as we approach 4000?

gsmith4: Getting sick of it, quite frankly. But, we're bound to do something huge soon.

liwatson asks: What is your opinion about the AOL?

gsmith4: Boy, it just keeps meandering along. Uninteresting at this point.

rothman7_10463 asks: Gary -- BEAS long?

gsmith4: I'd wait for a pop over 65.

ice31cream asks: Long Mark Spitz -- What about NEWP?

gsmith4: Long: Don Schollander! NEWP looks good, but also in need of some sideways action.

braincondor asks: Gary, what's up with AMAT?

gsmith4: Yuck. Still in a downtrend.

sweatin_bullets asks: Are you still using only GBS classic parameters to find your trading candidates?

gsmith4: No, I use other secret things. But, the concepts are the same: high-volume moves up from congestion

mbobick asks: Following up from your column yesterday, do you have any comments on DIS or ELN?

gsmith4: ELN still looks great. DIS still stuck in the muck.

sweatin_bullets asks: What's the problem with Greenspan? Everyone in the universe knew he'd not raise interest rates.

gsmith4: The problem is really not with AG. The problem is with everyone focussing on AG!

tsap667 asks: Gary, during your June chat you said you were up 377% ytd. Your performance during the last few years was about 70-85%. What accounted for the huge difference? (Would you write an article on this?)

gsmith4: Maybe at some point. Not doing well in August though!

jimsandwich asks: Gary, I read your column religiously and love it! You almost always look for a breakout before going long. Have you evaluated going long when a stock is near the bottom of its trading range?

gsmith4: I have not. That style just doesn't suit me.

drkkj asks: Gary, love your charts! Have learned a lot. Could you talk about Nortel?

gsmith4: Tricky read. This one could go either way.

Saxmanks asks: What do you think about WMT?

gsmith4: At the bottom of its trading range it's still a snoozer.

sweatin_bullets asks: Do you know of any trading software that searches for specific chart patterns, such as triangles, etc.?

gsmith4: Yes. Check out the software by Kasanjian. Breakouts from flat top congestion.

newbeetrader asks: What chart pattern do you think has the highest reliability?

gsmith4: See above!

SteveKross asks: Gary, your thoughts on DIGL?

gsmith4: Exactly like NT: could go either way right now.

SmoothAdam asks: Do you Expect the market to rally after Labor day? Is there any historical data to suggest this?

gsmith4: Actually, there is: see Sy Harding's excellent book on How to Prosper in a Bear Market.

Illini_Investor asks: Gary, how about ADCT?

gsmith4: A bad day today for it. I wouldn't touch it right now.

may_22kid asks: Gary do you agree with the Worden's analysis most of the time? I noticed you didn't agree with their call on OXHP.

gsmith4: Uh, yeah, I guess I generally agree with them. But, truthfully, I really only read their market calls. Everything else is distracting.

ilikewillienelson asks: What is your do you think about online trading?

gsmith4: Boy, that's a wide area. All for it, I guess.

stefan1_reino1 asks: Gary when do you usually prefer to exit your day positions? Morning? Afternoon? Or whenever you see a reasonable profit?

gsmith4: The latter. However, I have very few day positions.

hawkfan4 asks: Any thoughts on JDSU at 125?

gsmith4: Looks locked in a trading range. Yet another that could go either way.

ice31cream asks: Gary, Columnist Conversation Rocked today. What does the chart say about NEWP?

gsmith4: NEWP was up above. The CC does rock at times. But, generally only when those fundies stop and let someone else in the conversation.

ceklb asks: The future of VSTR?

gsmith4: Grim. Last two days were killers.

twointune asks: I think CHKP is about to break out, do you agree and what would your target be? Thanks, Gary.

gsmith4: I agree. 145 maybe.

hawkfan4 asks: Gary, where would you set a buy stop on SNDK? 76 maybe?

gsmith4: Maybe, but I'd probably pass: too "V" ish for me.

jayboydog asks: You write of daily or weekly volume, do you watch intraday volume/price movement?

gsmith4: Yeah ... when my positions are going against me!

mam1304 asks: How about Corvis and AVCI?

gsmith4: Both a bit too new to evaluate.

piano_ac asks: Gary, when a stock breaks up or down it is usually in the overbought or oversold region. Do you pay any attention to oscillators? Thanks. Love your work.

gsmith4: Zero.

t030339 asks: Are you still short-term trading mutual funds as you referenced in your book?

gsmith4: Whoops, wrong Gary Smith. It's the other guy who wrote about that. I have never traded mutual funds.

tjschill asks: Do you have any core positions/if so, which ones? How long do you hold if so?

gsmith4: No, no core positions. Hey, even my kids are on a day to day basis!

stefan1_reino1 asks: NDX Cash : NDX Futures? Any relationship?

gsmith4: Oh, you'd have to ask Todd-O about that mumbo jumbo. I have no clue.

sweatin_bullets asks: If Geo. Bush is elected, does the market crash?

gsmith4: I hope not: He gets my vote!

tjschill asks: You have suggested a big move soon-- one way or the other -- at what level are you looking for to go long? Or short?

gsmith4: I can't remember the exact numbers. See my Nas chart from the other day, though.

Dowjobber asks: Are RIG and DO in the too late to buy category?

gsmith4: No, RIG looks good right now. DO, I'd wait for a new high.

samuelchang88 asks: Gary, what's your take on ITWO and SANM? Love the new RealMoney.

gsmith4: Thanks, Sam. ITWO I'd wait for a breakout. SANM, ditto.

piano_ac asks: Your thoughts about DCLK. Is it bottoming?

gsmith4: Cramer said that right? Frankly, I don't see it yet.

Dowjobber asks: Is the move in CPQ for real? Can we trust it?

gsmith4: It looks extended right now. But, vol is certainly there. So, cautiously bullish.

stefan1_reino1 asks: Gary have people asked to you manage investments for them? What have you said?

gsmith4: Many times. My wife says, no way. Says I make enough now, and don't need the headaches. Probably right.

drkkj asks: Gary, what parameters do you use to enter when a stock explodes after a long flat line?

gsmith4: See my 5/3/99 column for how I normally trade, DR.

hawkfan4 asks: Gary, is QCOM getting shortable down here?

gsmith4: Only if it breaks to a new low. Otherwise it might actually be forming a base.

sweatin_bullets asks: You'd actually vote for Bush!? Can't you stand prosperity?

gsmith4: I love prosperity. But, we'd have had that if Ronald McDonald was president for the past 8 years. What I can't stand, is someone thinking he can spend my money better than I can. I don't want to name names, but it sounds like Hal Snore!

SmoothAdam asks: Gary how do you rate the MACD histogram as a technical trading tool?

gsmith4: Have never used MACD.

bluesman_dkt asks: Gary, is a mutual fund really worth while?

gsmith4: Yep: For 99% of the folks in America it is.

indice00 asks: Gary, after a breakout do you usually set or targets/stops at 6/6 (or other numbers?) or calculate the depth of the congestion (or bowl, or triangle) ?

gsmith4: I do all of the above at times.

Dchex asks: AETH has been all over the place, your thoughts?

gsmith4: Well, mostly down lately. I'd pass on tackling that one.

bneren_1999 asks: Gary what is your current favorite chart (stock)?

gsmith4: I liked JNPR a LOT this AM.

Dowjobber asks: How does COBT look to you?

gsmith4: It has potential. Kind of bullish.

jimsandwich asks: Gary, I'm curious. Are the conversations between the fundies and techies on RealMoney in jest? Or is there some friction there?

gsmith4: Oh, they're in jest. I really like all those guys personally. I just think that ALL fundies have very little clue!

copeh001 asks: Gary, what do you think of Proctor and Gamble?

gsmith4: Tough to get real excited about it. But, if it moves over 68, then it could get interesting.

Trench_rat asks: Both JNPR and ANCC made double tops last week ... today they broke out to new highs. This is unusually bullish. Do you agree?

gsmith4: The RAT! Bullish, yes. Unusually, no.

bluesman_dkt asks: What do you like to do in your spare time Gary?

gsmith4: Oh, I like to see my kids swim. And lately I've been working on my pathetic golf game.

stkluvr asks: Gary, Do you think the banks are going to continue to run here?

gsmith4: Million dollar question. See my BKX chart from the other day.

SteveKross asks: Gary, is Yammer still your broker?

gsmith4: Yep: love those guys.

FullBodyArmor asks: Gary, great writings ... except Tiger is the best of all time ... when you consider the competition and the way he totally dominates. Of course, I don't remember Nicklaus. You mentioned QCOM... I'm large and long. Do you have any long term thoughts on QCOM?

gsmith4: Well Jack competed against guys who actually had won a major or two: Tiger hasn't! As for QCOM, could be putting in a base. That bodes well.

Saxmanks asks: Nasdaq smoked the last two years from about Oct. to Jan. Three-peat?

gsmith4: Doubtful. But, then again, I didn't think we'd flat line for months on end this year, either.

christineqian asks: Gary, your view on SEBL at 172. Thank you.

gsmith4: Boy, a lot of charts look like this one: really could go either way right now

sweatin_bullets asks: We didn't have comparable prosperity in the 8 years before Clinton/Snore. Why do you think Bush's trillion dollar tax give-back is the answer? Won't it cause Greenspan to raise interest rates?

gsmith4: We has prosperity, but we had to build up defense to defeat the Evil Empire! (remember the great 80s!) As for a tax give-back, if it's offset by the gov spending less, then no harm, no foul!

Trench_rat asks: GB, do you think that RMBS should take out 100 on follow through?

gsmith4: That's what I'm counting on Rat.

Illini_Investor asks: Gary when does ANF stop going up?

gsmith4: I'll tell you: NOT buying ANF has been my greatest mistake ever. our whole family shops there, and my kids love it. I am SO stupid to not buy it. (But, it does need a rest.)

Dowjobber asks: How does SLE look to you? Still sideways?

gsmith4: Yep: stock can't get out of its own way.

ilxr asks: How high does PMCS go after resolving the triangle to the upside?

gsmith4: You mean IF it resolves to the upside? 280 seems fair.

javan54 asks: Where did you start?

gsmith4: Log cabin: Allentown, Pa.

heleng_71107 asks: Where do you think the Nasdaq goes from here? Love your RealMoney articles

gsmith4: Thanks! On the Nas, seriously, flip a coin.

stefan1_reino1 asks: Are you bullish on the Dow?

gsmith4: Yeah, that's a lot easier to read than the Nasdaq.

drkkj asks: Gary, you talked about DYN in a previous column, still look good?

gsmith4: I think so, although it might drift back to the high 30s.

hawkfan4 asks: Gary, do you still think WAG gets to 40, and if so, what kind of time frame do you allow your trades?

gsmith4: Wag to 40? Yeah, I think so. Of course, I'd have been stopped out by now. That kind of year.

tanoakie asks: Do you see the slow uptrend that JJC is predicting, or is there going to be some big-time up/down coming?

gsmith4: You know I was thinking about that after he wrote it, and it does make sense. But the charts tell me, we'll have more of an explosive move.

heleng_71107 asks: What do you think about FISV?

gsmith4: Pretty bullish if it breaks that recent congestion.

SmoothAdam asks: Gary, What's your favorite technical indicator for an equity in a trading range?

gsmith4: Oh, I don't trade stocks in a trading range. Only breakouts.

stefan1_reino1 asks: Gary what happened with the Prom Queen set of stocks?

gsmith4: You know, I looked at them recently, and they're doing great. Got bored with it, though.

pshah2_00 asks: Gary's opinion on all 3 indexes 2 weeks from now?

gsmith4: If forced, I'd say up. But, boy is that a guess!

georgiabean2000 asks: Who do you owe your success to??

gsmith4: My "so-called" success, anyway. I guess it's 1/3 my wife, 1/3 my kids and 1/3 getting my fair share of lucky breaks!

gsmith4: Okay, that's a wrap! Thanks to the great and powerful Laura who always helps me honcho these things. Also, I WILL be back on the tube starting this weekend: Fox News Channel, Sat and Sun mornings. Also, look for a GBS interview in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities mag out shortly!

laura_the_street: Thanks for joining us this afternoon. A transcript of today's event will be available on www.thestreet.com later this eve.