Measly Memorial Day Sales: Better than Awful

If Memorial Day weekend's measly retail sales were the strongest showing since early April, boy do we have a long way to go until the sector recovers.

The International Council of Shopping Centers reported on Wednesday that the long holiday weekend racked in a .8% jump in retail sales, the best number the sector has seen since April 11.

"The lead-up to Memorial Day holiday weekend sparked some renewed consumer spending, which lifted the week-over-week pace" Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist, said in a statement.

May same-store sales are due out on June 1 and analysts expect an improvement from April.

Richard Jaffe, analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, expects Gap(GPS Quote) TJX(TJX Quote), Ross Stores(ROST Quote) and Kohl's(KSS Quote) to deliver the biggest gains during the month, with their value-oriented merchandise.

He also forecasts Urban Outfitters(URBN Quote)to be successful, offering "differentiated and desirable merchandise assortment."

One mitigating factor for the month: the $50 billion federal tax rebate consumers received in May 2008, one-third of which was spent. The impact of that rebate makes year-over-year comparisons difficult.

ICSC Research expects May sales will range from flat to down by 1%.