Analyst: ABInBev, SABMiller To Grow In Recession

Consumers are changing their habits as they worry about their investments, jobs and home values and that will favor brands made by ABInBev — such as Bud Light — and SABMiller's U.S. unit, MillerCoors, maker of Coors Light and Miller Lite, the analyst wrote. Those brands, he wrote, "are perceived to be good value for money and consumers buy them out of habit."

On the other end of the spectrum, he said, are import beers like Heineken, Corona and Beck's. Import beers, he wrote, "are perceived as poor value for money despite strong taste and quality rankings and are thus more at risk of losing share during this downturn."

Just by holding their market share, ABInBev and SABMiller should be able to generate above-market average growth rates, he wrote. He assumes the industry will post 2.7 percent long-term growth, while ABInBev and SABMiller should be able to grow their operating profits by between 3.5 percent and 4 percent.

"This assumes that the companies see no improvement in efficiency, add no market share and make no incremental acquisitions," he wrote.

Carlsberg and Heineken should expect to see growth of about 2.5 percent to 3 percent. Steib said he was particularly skeptical of sales in Western Europe, including Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain.