As Trucking Goes, So Goes The Economy

Some data may indicate the nation's economic tailspin is beginning to level off.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said earlier this month that manufacturing activity contracted at a slower-than-expected pace in April, as new orders to factories rose.

Less encouraging, the government also said that the nation's gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent during the first three months of the year. But the GDP numbers also showed a rise in consumer spending and a decline in inventories, which suggests manufacturers and retailers may have to increase new orders soon.

But "soon" doesn't seem soon enough for the trucking industry, which is anxiously waiting for calls from manufacturers and retailers who need deliveries. The ATA's Headley said that although inventories are falling, sales are dropping at an even steeper rate, which is wiping out any benefit for the trucking industry.

Trucking companies usually see shipments increase in number and weight three months to a year before the broader economy picks up, as retailers restock and manufacturers ramp up.

In the recession in 2001, freight shipments improved a full year before the broader economy.