As Trucking Goes, So Goes The Economy

Broughton said that more trucking companies will inevitably fail if the economy remains weak. But the pace of closures needs to speed up, he said, to allow other trucking companies to get a bigger slice of shipments and to raise prices again.

Analysts think that the number of trucks on U.S. highways will continue to slide until supply is more aligned with demand. When the trucking business starts to pick up again, they say, other economic factors — from the employment rate to the gross domestic product — will eventually follow.

Tavio Headley, an economist with the American Trucking Associations, believes that trucking industry business will pick up as early as next quarter, and the broader economy will show some minor improvements beginning in the last three months of the year. That is slightly earlier than previous estimates by the ATA, but Headley emphasizes that the economy will probably stay weak for some time.

"We do expect the economy to continue to contract, but at a slower pace over the next few quarters," he said. "And the reason we're not optimistic? A huge reduction in business investment and the housing market continues to be a huge drag on the overall economy."