Some See Early Signs Of Rising Tide For Boats

The optimism isn't universal.

"Anybody that is in the business of making and selling boats right now is struggling," said Edward Aaron, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets who follows Brunswick Corp., the country's No. 1 boat builder. "The downturn that we've seen in this industry is not even comparable to anything we've seen in the past."

Still, Thom Dammrich, president of the NMMA, said he expects a boom in boating and fishing this summer, citing improving economic signs and consumer confidence. And he noted that national average gasoline prices, which soared to the high $3 range for most of last summer, are back down to the low $2 range.

Dammrich estimated new boat sales in 2008 were around $9.5 billion, a little over 200,000 boats. Dollar sales of used boats were about the same, but at roughly 600,000 units. And the association estimates that employment at boat and engine manufacturers is down 50 percent industrywide.

Irwin Jacobs, chairman and chief executive of Minneapolis-based Genmar Holdings Inc., the country's No. 2 boat manufacturer with 14 brands, is one of the cautious optimists. While Jacobs had no hard data to back it up, he said he felt things were looking up.