Kentucky Derby Betting: It's Horse Sense

Weather will be a factor at the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs' dirt track in Louisville tomorrow, as there's an 80% chance of rain. Here are BigTrends.com contributors' picks.

As many horses run on synthetic surfaces, I tend to favor those that have proven themselves on dirt. With that in mind, plus the data below, there are only three horses I like, based on history, to win the Kentucky Derby. I Want Revenge deserves to be the favorite, followed by Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. They meet my criteria for two strong 100+ speed ratings coming into the big race.

Look at the past speed ratings of recent Derby winners coming into the race:

Derby Winner BRIS Speed Rating Last race (weeks before Derby) BIG BROWN 106, 104 Florida Derby (5 weeks) STREET SENSE 98, 101 Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly) BARBARO         104, 104, 97, 97 Florida Derby (5 weeks) GIACOMO 100,  96,  98, 96 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101, 103 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97 Wood Memorial (3 weeks) WAR EMBLEM 109, 105, 88, 94 Illinois Derby (4 weeks) MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks) FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks) CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94 Lexington (2 weeks) REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106 Blue Grass (3 weeks) GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100 Wood Memorial (3 weeks) SEA HERO 96, 85, 77 Blue Grass (3 weeks) LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100 Arkansas Derby (2 weeks) STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87 Blue Grass (3 weeks) UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98 Blue Grass (3 weeks)

You can see that in the past 19 years, 16 Derby winners had a race speed of 100 or more in their prior race, while 12 of 19 have two straight 100+ ratings. So in seeking out the winner, I lean heavily on these criteria.

Interestingly, Friesan Fire has had seven weeks off, which would be relatively unprecedented, but he's the only horse that is proven on a sloppy track in recent times. Note that Desert Party also had success as a 2-year-old in the mud, which is why I like him to get a piece of the action.

Here's my expected order of finish, along with betting ideas (for those so inclined):

I Want Revenge (3-1 morning line odds, Post Position 13): After being left at the starting gate and spotting a solid field a dozen lengths in the Wood Memorial, this horse came back to win and deserves to be the favorite. The challenge is that he's not much of a value play so we have to pair him with other horses in exactas or trifectas to get paid here.