Dendreon's Provenge: A Behind-the-Scenes Look
Updated from 11:59 a.m. EDT
Dendreon threw a celebratory cocktail party Tuesday night at a Chicago hotel just off the Miracle Mile. CEO Mitch Gold was beaming as he slapped backs, shook hands and hugged employees, investors and supporters. Gold has a family history with cancer, so Tuesday had extra special meaning for him personally.
What will Provenge cost and how much of the drug can Dendreon sell? Those are two related questions, obviously, neither of which have concrete answers yet. Dendreon executives are loath to answer either directly, mainly because the company's focus now is on filing Provenge with the FDA and getting the drug approved. Wall Street hasn't come up with a consensus price for Provenge, but the estimate you hear most often is the range of $60,000 to $80,000 for a course of treatment. That puts Provenge in league with pricing for other biologic cancer drugs like Genentech's Avastin or Eli Lilly's (LLY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Erbitux. It also makes Provenge a target for those who question and criticize the high cost of cancer drugs, but that's a debate for another day. As for peak sales of Provenge, it's not hard to get to $2 billion or more with pricing in the $60,000 to $80,000 range. In fact, it's quite easy. My own Provenge revenue model forecast peak U.S. sales of $1 billion based on what seems now to be a ridiculously low $30,000 annual price tag.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV