Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

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Positive Developments
Posted at 12:44 p.m. EDT, April 24, 2009

Some larger macro developments deserve to be pointed out, and I believe they will cause the hedge funds that are short to cave and come in and start buying.

First, we have a definitive return to higher prices for the Baltic Freight numbers, even though today's were down a tad. Worldwide commerce is coming back. I regard this as massively important, because we had a multiweek downturn that caused great concern for my bottom, out-of-depression-into-recession thesis.

Second, we have a return to a rally for gold and oil. The former had paused because of the resumption of deflation. Now gold is back and it, too, is a sign of economic strength. Oil's been strong, even as skeptics abound, but that's world trade, too, not U.S., because that's measured here in concert with natural gas, which is in a severe depression. (The strength of those stocks is a total mystery to me.)

Third, there's hope that some growth might come out of Germany and Europe. I can't stress how important this is for the Coke (KO) / Procter (PG) / Pepsi (PEP) / Abbott (ABT) / General Mills (GIS) complex, which has been pummeled because of newfound expectations of a resumption of the dollar's rally. If you take that off the table, you'll get a possible end to the endless liquidation of the defensives. It doesn't mean a huge rally; just less of a reason to sell.

All of these bear watching because they may hold the key to some of the reservations that people have about the notion of a turn (see my first piece today).

I continue to see good things. I continue to hear loads of bearishness, and those two factors make me want to get a little longer here in the commodities, particularly after the reaction to ConocoPhillips (COP) yesterday.

Random musings: The Ford (F) bonds are a gigantic buy. ... Oil stocks are still pricing in the imminent fall of crude. Economy's too strong to let that happen.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Abbott, General Mills, Pepsi, and ConocoPhillips.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting

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