This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on April 20 at 10:08 a.m. EDT.
Beginning today, I plan to publish (probably on a regular monthly basis) the general construction of a model portfolio (long-only) with a six-month investment horizon.
Should there be a major change in market conditions or in market outlook, I will provide a timely update to the portfolio.
My hypothetical portfolio will embrace where I believe a long-term investment portfolio should be positioned relative to S&P 500 industry benchmarks and weightings.Given the scope and duration of the recent market advance, I believe that the U.S. equity market is vulnerable to a short-term decline of 5% to 6%.
- Technology: Apple (AAPL); Microsoft (MSFT); Dell (DELL); Cisco (CSCO); Qualcomm (QCOM); Research In Motion (RIMM); Oracle (ORCL)
- Energy: Transocean (RIG); Schlumberger (SLB); BP (BP); ConocoPhillips (COP); Chevron (CVX); select MLPs
- Financials: Bank of America (BAC); Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A); Cohen & Steers (CNS); AllianceBernstein (AB); REITs, including Vornado (VNO), Boston Properties (BXP), Weingarten (WRI) and SL Green (SLG); Chubb (CB); Loews (L); National Financial Partners (NFP); Hatteras (HTS); Annaly (NLY); SLM (SLM); Visa (V)
- Health Care: Abbott Labs (ABT); Gilead (GILD); Celgene (CELG)
- Industrials: Emerson Electric (EMR); Ingersoll-Rand (IR); 3M (MMM); PPG (PPG); Union Pacific (UNP)
- Consumer Staples: Procter & Gamble (PG); General Mills (GIS); Unilever (UN)
- Consumer Discretionary: Home Depot (HD); Lowe's (LOW); Disney (DIS); Nike (NKE); Yum! Brands (YUM); Wal-Mart (WMT); eBay (EBAY); Starbucks (SBUX)
- Materials: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX); BHP Billiton (BHP)
- Utilities: Duke Energy (DUK); Dominion Resources (D); PG&E (PCG)
- Telecom: Verizon (VZ); AT&T (T)
- Credit: putable converts (REITs); bank loans; high-yield debt
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