Is It Safe? Best Buy's Rally Could Be Over

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Best Buy(BBY Quote) shares have more than doubled since hitting a 52-week low in November, but new data suggests the stock's explosive gains will be short-lived.

The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 1.1% in March from February, when they rose 0.3%. Sales at electronics stores declined 5.9%, more than any other industry. Rising unemployment has hurt spending, a trend that could continue until the recession lifts.

Best Buy shares dropped 47% last year as the S&P 500 Index lost 40%. After the company beat analysts' earnings forecasts for two straight quarters, bullish investors speculated the worst would soon be over for the world's largest electronics retailer. The company was also expected to benefit from the downfall of rival retailer Circuit City, which filed for bankruptcy last year.

The company's shares have climbed 45% percent this year, closing at $38.10 yesterday. That's more than double the $16.42 the stock was selling for on Nov. 21, when it hit a 52-week low.

If Best Buy's rally was for real, wouldn't shares of suppliers Sony(SNE Quote) and Panasonic(PC Quote) experience comparable gains? Sony shares have risen 21% this year, while Panasonic's have increased 7.2%. But both have lost a third of their value in the past year.

Circuit City's collapse provides a boost to Best Buy. The impact is impossible to quantify, but at the least, the elimination of a major competitor will send more customers to Best Buy, solidifying its dominance in consumer electronics.

But there's also a negative message in Circuit City's failure. Its demise shows how hard it will be for a national electronics chain to survive this recession.