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Whether we noodle around between 826 and 838.50 or begin a correction toward 797.75 will depend on how much firepower the bears have and how bad traders want to lock in multi-week gains. A break of strong support at 826, and the bears have a shot a taking control (if only for a day or two). Moderate support will come in near 823, 817 and 812.50, with strong support at 808. With the market's positive tone and the persistent bid, it will take significant firepower by the bears to push us under 808 ... if they do, we should see 797.75 quickly.

5. Homebuilder's Double Bottom: Real or Fantasy?

Alan Farley
4/3/2009 7:57 AM EDT
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has been moving higher with the broad market since the March turnaround. The bounce started right at the November low, raising speculation that the fund (and sector) is grinding out a double bottom pattern.

But is this pattern real or fantasy? Current technical evidence is mixed at best. For starters, the fund still hasn't posted a single higher low during this recovery effort, despite the 40% bounce. And accumulation is just pathetic, with on-balance volume hardly budging in the last four weeks. On the flip side, Thursday's rally was the first time the fund actually bounced at the 50-day EMA since last September. This positive price action confirms new support at that level. And it will take less than a single point of progress to finally end the four-month string of lower lows.

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