Kass: Pushing the Pause Button

Call this the "George Costanza market," a market that does the opposite of what everyone thought it should have done three weeks ago and might now deviate from a growing view that the market will continue its rise in the weeks ahead.

That being said, there is no change in my economic expectations (from three weeks ago) nor in my intermediate view that the U.S. stock market will rise to levels higher than most anticipate.

My previously encouraging prediction for the spring-summer period remains unchanged:

By June, economic traction should begin to take hold from the accumulated fiscal and monetary stimulation coupled with the large drop in energy prices. While it will be too early to demonstrate a broad economic recovery, evidence of stabilization will be clearly manifested in improving retail sales, and stocks will take off for their final advancing phase. With fixed income under increasing pressure, large asset allocation programs at some of the largest and late-to-the party pension plans (out of bonds and into stocks) could trigger an explosive rally in the middle to late summer. This move by July or August could close the October 2008 gap in the SPDRs at around $107.

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Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here.

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Know What You Own: In midday trading on Friday, the most active stocks included Citigroup(C), Bank of America(BAC), American International Group(AIG), the Financial Bull 3X(FAS), Financial Select SPDR(XLF) and PowerShares QQQ(QQQQ). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit TheStreet.com's Investing A-to-Z section.

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