Cramer: Great Depression II Is Off the Table

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The drumbeat is picking up. Production decline is slowing down as we see a small rebound in rail traffic and an end to inventory builds. There is a nice housing starts number this morning, the strongest jump since 1990, which was forecasted by a small bump in the stocks of Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Homes (KBH). Huge increase in multifamily units.

Retail sales were up more than expected in February, hence the upgrades in Home Depot (HD), Best Buy (BBY) and Target (TGT) by Jefferies. Unemployment claims are not getting worse.

Commodities are rising: Witness the run in copper, manifested by Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and the run in oil, signaled by the bottoms in Chevron (CVX) and Transocean (RIG). Bank profits are on the upswing, which is why Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and General Electric (GE) are bottoming.

Therefore, the bottom is in. The economy bottomed last month and we are now going to go up. The rally is the logical extension of the bottom and the bottom will become obvious to all shortly. The stimulus is kicking in, lending is picking up, mergers and acquisitions are back and the TALF plan is upon us.

Is it right? Is it all over?

Here's my take: When you see these kinds of stories and data, you can take "Great Depression II" off the table. It first appeared after Lehman, but it has been taken off by this data and will stay off if President Obama doesn't press his budget or if Congress tones it down.

But does taking Great Depression II off the table mean that the rally is "real"? That the Dow can go to 8,000 or -- the Doug Kass view -- that the bottom is in?

I want to believe it. However, we then get Illinois Tool Works (ITW) yesterday. Today Nucor (NUE) releases a statement so dreadful that I feel like we are, once again, experiencing an economy that gets worse every day. It is important to note that you can puzzle over Nucor and say that production is now at 40%. The bottom for all recessions is about that. The Depression was at 25%.