This blog post originally appeared on
on March 18 at 7:36 a.m. EDT.
From my perch, the
American International Group
(AIG - Get Report) bonus outcry and today's House Capital Markets Subcommittee
hearings are simply a sideshow to the main event -- namely that we have likely seen a significant and maybe even a generational
low in the U.S. stock market.
How to seek alpha in a bull market was the message I tried to communicate on
CNBC's "The Kudlow Report" last night.
I continue to view the March 5 low as the "Nouriel Roubini stock market bottom," the day the grizzly NYU Professor pronounced a 600 or lower
S&P 500 price objective during his worldwide lecture tour.
A confluence of negative sentiment, historically low equity valuations, a noticeable deceleration in the rate of decline of industrial production and a strongly positive-leaning set of market internals have conspired to produce a combustion in the world's stock markets that is likely to be
sustained through the summer
is the tape of last night's show.
Tactically, I wouldn't expect the market to continue its straight up move as it has done over the past week. Nor would I anticipate a correction to anything near the Nouriel Roubini stock market bottom low of March 5, 2009. As I displayed earlier this week, below is a chart of my specific expectations for the S&P 500, using the
, through the middle of the summer 2009.
SPDR Trust (SPY) -- Expectations
Most have been caught flatfooted in the face of the market's rip, and it is hard to find anyone who believes that the rally is a prelude to a sustainable advance.