It's Tech Merger Time: Who's Next?

Updated from 11:11 a.m. EDT

Cisco (CSCO) heated up the server market this week, ice cracked, IBM (IBM) warmed to Sun (JAVA) -- and suddenly there's talk of a thaw in tech mergers.

IBM's interest in a $6.5 billion deal for data networking specialist Sun Micro, as reported Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal, suggests that long-dormant acquisition activity is springing to life.

Cash-hoarding tech shops have been slogging through the recession by price-fighting the competition, yet they're still powerless to revive stagnant growth. These companies may now be scanning a field of possible takeover bargains as stock values start to bounce off multiyear lows.

"There will be more M&A, and it's largely a function of market and valuations," says Matt Robinson, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities. Robinson predicted in January that Cisco would crash Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) and IBM's server party, ending the peaceful segmentation of the IT sector.

Cisco has been pursuing a partnership route, especially with its new server move, enlisting Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and virtualization shop VMware(VMW) executives to star in its media show Monday. But other big players like H-P and Dell (DELL) have yet to chose a path.

Possible acquisition targets that could help bolster vulnerable positions will probably include the usual names like data storage firm EMC (EMC), and networking gearmakers like Brocade (BRCD) and Juniper (JNPR).

"These companies are struggling to grow organically," says Collins Stewart analyst Ashok. "They are weighing whether consolidation makes sense."

With Cisco crossing product lines, these companies now need to defend turf and fill in some holes with strategic buys. And, says Robinson, "they want to get it done while they can get a good valuation."