Cramer: Worst-Case Dow View

Editor's note: This article was originally published March 6.

Levels elude me. Levels like, "The Dow can trade to 6000." Or, "The Dow's headed to 5000" or "It can take out the 1991 lows." I don't know anything about those. I like stock-by-stock analysis, not top-down. I like individual stock valuation and individual stock levels, not top-down levels. That's how I think. I total them to see where they could go.

At the beginning of the year I did an analysis of where I thought the Dow could go. It was full of misplaced optimism about the Obama administration and the potential for a second half recovery.

(On Monday, the Dow closed at 6,547.05, down 79.89.)

I should have just called it the bull case, because we will have no second-half recovery, and the agenda of the Obama administration is ensuring that.

So, today, I calculated the bear case to see where we can go, case by case. Keep in mind that this analysis was done with an eye toward the continued wealth destruction, and it is not something that I expect will happen right now, all at once. We are due for the inevitable bounce, and I don't want to ignore it.

And with that note of caution, drum roll please: 5320. I simply can't get any lower no matter what I do. I just can't. So with that in mind, you can say that 15%, give or take a few percent, might actually be, are you ready, buyable if we get to 6000. Frankly, after this analysis, I am more sanguine, not less, because of how harsh and disaster-oriented this line-by-line calculation is.

No further ado, here's how we get to 5320, something that I simply can't believe will happen before the fated bear market rally spike.

Alcoa(AA Quote): Here's a stock that's become a mid-cap play at $4 that is losing money and has a terrible balance sheet. It is overvalued on earnings and undervalued as a public company, but there is no private equity for this one, and suitors have dried up since the mistaken Alcan acquisition. I think it could get cut in half to $2 and hang there if it keeps taking losses, which I expect it will.