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Bet on the Horse and the Jockey

According to a Fortune piece, a 10% bounce in Goldman's most "opaque" assets would shoot book value up to $102 vs. a stock price of $88 today. And several years down the road, if Goldman continues to grow its business at the expense of the fallen, it could easily again become the darling of the financial sector.

Also, Goldman has indicated that it is very interested in paying back the government TARP money it has received. I doubt a company would consider making such a statement during this credit crunch if it wasn't comfortable with its capital position.

This market is not for the faint of heart. Now more than ever, able and competent management must lead their respective company's out of this crisis. But the company must also be sound, because even a great jockey can't ride a dead horse.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider ATP to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

This was originally published on RealMoney on Mar. 3, 2009. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

At the time of publication, Gad was long ATP, although positions may change at any time.

Sham Gad is the managing partner of the Gad Partners Fund and the Gad Partners Offshore fund, value-centric investment partnerships based in Athens, Georgia. Gad has written extensively for the Motley Fool and was a securities analyst for UAS Asset Management, a small, value-focused fund in New York City in 2007. Previously, Gad managed assets for the Gad Investment Group. For additional information, please visit www.gadcapital.com.

Gad also runs a value-investing blog inspired by the teachings of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. Additionally, he is currently working on a value investing book to be published by John Wiley & Sons in the fall of 2009. Gad earned his BBA and MBA at the University of Georgia. Send Sham Gad an email. You can reach Gad at sham@gadcapital.com.

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