Savage: At Investor Forum, Optimism Bubbles Up
The widespread pessimism of media headlines reminds Stack of other bear-market bottoms -- notably the BusinessWeek cover that famously predicted "The Death of Equities" in 1979. The issue came out just before the start of the last great bull market.
Inflation vs. deflation debate: Almost every speaker pointed out deflation, with asset values falling faster than the Fed and Treasury can create new liquidity. But some were willing to look beyond the deflationary valley to possible inflation down the road. There were bulls on gold stocks, agricultural commodities and even energy, although potential gains may be down the road. Jim Jubak, author of "Jubak's Picks," said fertilizer and agriculture stocks are already starting to rise because demand for food will grow worldwide. Several speakers said investors should buy intermediate-term, high-quality corporate bonds to capture yields that are outstripping those of Treasuries, which are paying almost nothing. Jack Ablin of Chicago's Harris Bank, went as far as to recommend an exchange-traded fund that buys high-yield, or junk, bonds. Ablin's willing to take on the risks of companies going bankrupt and faster inflation. But Forbes columnist Richard Lehmann warned that a slew of junk-bond failures may be just around the corner. Government spoils markets: Joe Battipaglia, a market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus and a well-known CNBC pundit, roused the audience when he advocated avoiding stocks associated with the government's Troubled Assets Relief Program, which injects funds into distressed finance companies. He warned that the government could start making rules about compensation and spending for the industries it controls, which could drive the best talent to other businesses and hurt their profit potential. He said companies would "rue the day they took government money." Of course, banks didn't have a choice; they were required to participate.- Loading Comments...
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