Opinion: Justifiable Pessimism Over Obama Hype

EXPERIENCE? WE DON'T NEED NO STINKING EXPERIENCE!

Now, the rhetoric has morphed from "experience" to "change". But here's the problem -- Mr. Obama has the same tools at his disposal. Nothing has changed because nothing is new under the sun.

Do you really...really think that an entrenched Washington establishment is going to fold up its tents just because a charismatic Chicago thug is now in the White House? If so, I've got good news for you -- there are only 351 days until Santa Clause comes down your chimney and leaves your new toys under the tree. Don't forget to bake those cookies.

Our new President has the least amount of experience of any President in history (except George Washington, I guess). So it defies logic that an inexperienced Commander-in-Chief, irrespective of how hip he is, or how many magazine covers he has graced, will be able to address the most troubled economy and socio-political conflicts in our lifetime, if not in our nation's history.

Contrary to the wishes of so many otherwise-intelligent people, this is not an issue of optimism. ("Oh Dan! Stop being so pessimistic! You're just bitter because...whatever.") I'm not bitter (I did not vote for the other guy either). I'm a patriot who is concerned and troubled about our collective inability to learn from history.

Also, and importantly, I am very, very hopeful that the next administration will be successful and prove my skepticism to be completely unfounded. A successful administration benefits us all. It's not personal -- again, it's pragmatic. But "hoping" for a successful administration should not lead to blind acceptance of that administration's policies. To fall back on that old IBM slogan: "THINK!"

This is beyond any pessimism. It is pragmatism. And pragmatism must be a part of your overall investment thesis if you wish to remain above the fray.