Passenger Car Back Amid Bleak Auto Sales

Auto sales collapsed in the fourth quarter and aren't expected to improve in the first quarter, the automakers say. But there is hope down the road, like by the second quarter, that sales will improve.

And not surprisingly, with the high-gas price scare this past summer, passenger-car sales are making a comeback.

"We expect the first several months of 2009 will feel very much like the last two months of 2008," said Emily Kolinski Morris, economist for Ford(F Quote), during the company's January sales call. "The first quarter is going to be bad no matter how you look at it."

The three major U.S. automakers all posted sales figures Monday, and all sales were off at least 30% from the previous year.

Looking further ahead, "by the end of the first quarter into the second quarter, we should start to see some improvement," Morris said. She cited the stimulus package expected from the incoming Obama administration, stabilization in financial markets and pent-up demand for new automobiles, given that "industry sales are well below replacement demand."

At General Motors(GM Quote), the outlook is similar. "We have a lot of challenges with the economy, we are in a recession, (but) we think there is some cause for optimism as we move into 2009, especially in the second half of the year," said Mike DiGiovanni, chief sales analyst, on a sales call.

He too cited the expected fiscal stimulus by the Obama administration and said that GM expects total 2009 auto sales between 10.5 million and 12 million. The last time sales fell below 12 million was in 1982, when the total was 10.4 million.