Cramer Bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part II

This is the second part of Jim Cramer's series of predictions for the Dow components in 2009. Be sure to read the first part.

2009 Dow Playbook -- Part II

Caterpillar (CAT): Here's a direct play on a turn in China and a huge stimulus plan by President-elect Obama. I believe the dividend is safe, and I trust management when it says that 2009's second half can be much better than the first half, even though I am in a lonely minority on that front. The decision to freeze wages and fire a bunch of people made sense and made me believe the company cares more about maintaining the dividend through hard times than I thought it did.

I believe the stock will get gigantic orders from the U.S. government after the passing of a stimulus plan. You can't build any infrastructure without Caterpillar's equipment, and the government ain't buying tractors from Komatsu. Helped by its 4% yield, the stock will go back to $55, a fantastic move, even though first-quarter earnings will be horrible. Don't forget, China's coming back, and that's a second big customer.

---

Chevron (CVX): It is difficult to expect a radical turn up in oil, but I do believe that these prices are artificially depressed. That's why Chevron's stock rallied from the $55 level, where it fell to in October.

I believe 2009 will be a year where dividends tell the tale, and every time Chevron dips back to 4%, it will pick up buyers. I believe that oil saw its lows at the end of the year, but I don't think we are going back to $60. A rangebound oil may the best thing for this company, and I predict good things, which is why I am buying it for Action Alerts Plus (click here for a free trial). It should rally to $82, another nice move, and should be bought aggressively on any decline of any magnitude. ExxonMobil (XOM) is.