Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street: Dec. 19

Not Such a Slick Oil Forecast

Merrill Lynch's oil analyst thinks he's slick. We disagree.

Francisco Blanch, the Merrill Lynch(MER Quote) analyst famous for calling oil's ascent to $150, helped push oil lower this week after he reiterated his forecast that oil would hit $25 a barrel next year in a Bloomberg interview. He originally made the call on Nov. 26.

But don't celebrate too soon, says Blanch -- clearly from the other side of his mouth -- prices will return to their $150 peak in the next three years once the global recession ends.

"If we reignite economic growth to a very fast level, we will have a shortage of energy again," said Blanch who gained his market moving status in November 2007 by forecasting $150 oil when crude was about $96.

So let's get this straight. Blanch's price range for oil for the next three years is between $25 and $150 a barrel, depending on global economic growth.

Give us a break. You could drive a fleet of tankers through that range.

Of course, Blanch could change his mind, just like he did at least four times this year. Back on Aug. 7, for example, with crude about $120, Blanch said oil demand would be supported by "very healthy" growth in emerging markets, according to Bloomberg. Two months later, Blanch sent prices 4.6% lower when he reduced his average 2009 forecast to $90 citing worries over a sputtering global economy.

We won't wait for his next prediction. We'll just keep wondering how we could ever live without these guys.

Dumb-o-meter score: 90 -- We think the market will be either go up or down in 2009. Ain't we smart?