Au Revoir!

SAN FRANCISCO -- Major averages flexed upward Thursday, which seems appropriate given the majority on Wall Street believe that's the direction stocks will be heading in the coming weeks.

As previously indicated, I'm about to embark on an extended trip for Europe, leaving tonight(!). Since many sources lament the focus we in the media sometimes put on the here and now, I figured my pending absence offered an opportunity for folks to make predictions looking out four to six weeks, vs. days, minutes or seconds.

"I'd have to say higher," was the forecast of Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at Gruntal, who noted the market's predilection to rally in the months leading up to presidential elections.

Ginzburg stuck to his prior call that this is a good time to "sell strength and buy weakness." But he foresees overall strength in the coming weeks if only because August has been such a "dismal month" for order flows. That will change when money managers here and in Europe return from vacations, he said.

"A lot of money needs to be put to work," the trader surmised. "We're starting to build a base and are set up for a good September."

A good September and higher prices is also the prediction of Scott Bleier, chief investment strategist at Prime Charter, who suggested Thursday's gains augur breakouts for major averages.

"This is not chickenfeed," he said of the Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3%, in particular. Indeed, Hewlett-Packard's (HWP Quote - Cramer on HWP - Stock Picks) woes had no negative repercussions for Nasdaq bellwethers, led by Sun Microsystems (SUNW Quote - Cramer on SUNW - Stock Picks), Intel (INTC Quote - Cramer on INTC - Stock Picks), and Applied Materials (AMAT Quote - Cramer on AMAT - Stock Picks).

Finanical stocks also garnered Bleier's attention. He seemed agog at the huge gains sported by Merrill Lynch (MER Quote - Cramer on MER - Stock Picks), Goldman Sachs (GS Quote - Cramer on GS - Stock Picks) and Lehman Brothers (LEH Quote - Cramer on LEH - Stock Picks), to name a few. Amid more talk of consolidation within the industry and confidence the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates anytime soon, the American Stock Exchange Broker/Dealer Index gained 3.9%.

Looking out a bit further, Bleier eyes a bit of a pullback after the Fed's Aug. 22 meeting, but then a "really good rally" at September's onset, with the Comp eclipsing 4200 and ultimately trading as high as 4600 while the Dow rallies to as high as 11,650.

However, the strategist foresees a "let's-be-scared-of-October" selloff emerging in mid-September, predicting the Comp will be around 4050 and the Dow near 11,250 when I return the week of Sept. 25.

While that would represent gains of nearly 3% and 2% for the averages, respectively, from today's close, I suspect such a development (should it occur) would frustrate many investors. Given the market's penchant for doing just that this year, I too believe the major averages won't be too far from current levels on my return.

Maybe that's wishful thinking or the easy way out. But "more of the same" is also the forecast of John Bollinger, president of Equity Trader.com in Manhattan Beach, Calif. Specifically, Bollinger foresees "more trading range [activity] with the midcaps strongest, and last year's leadership still sorting things out" in the coming month (or so).

If that sounds unpalatable or insufficiently bullish, you won't want to know what Brian Belski, fundamental market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray has to say.

In part because of the growing bullishness among his peers and a sense another nasty surprise is brewing, "We are ripe for another fall pullback," Belski contends. "The past few days are meaningless -- no volume, no sponsorship is creating gaps in a lot charts [and] you know the old saying -- all gaps must be filled."

Belski forecast the Comp will retest its lows of the year at just above 3000 within the next six weeks, while the Dow suffers as much as a 1,000-point selloff after hitting 11,500 in the short term.

However, the strategist's harrowing tale has a happy ending (more akin to Dean Koontz than Stephen King, that is). He believes the "sharp correction" will provide a "loud and clear catalyst for buying stocks in earnest again," leading to another "V-shaped" bottom that takes the Comp to 4500 and the Dow to 12,000 by year's end.

Of course, we'll check back and see how these prognostications fared when I return.

Enjoy the Silence

Finally, thanks to all who've sent emails with well wishes and travel tips. For those salivating at the thought of my absence because you think I'm some agent of doom or mouthpiece for the bears (you should see the emails), I offer the following, culled from a recent report by Mr. Bollinger:

We spend our lives looking for reinforcement for what we believe when what we should really be doing is listening to the opposition. Democrats should watch the Republican convention. The religious should check out the atheists' literature. Environmentalists should read the trade journal of their most hated industry. Liberals should listen to Buchanan and conservatives to Nader. In the stock market, bulls should listen to the bears and bears should listen to the bulls.

Why? Because reading loyalist literature is a waste of time. You already know that you are bullish, you already believe in the almighty, your political views are already yours and you know that the environment is in trouble. Time is precious so there must be a better way to spend it than shoring up already established bulwarks.

So what should you read, listen to or watch? Whatever makes you the maddest. If you see red when you hear so-and-so's comment, so-and-so is doing you a valuable service. If you want to tear up so-and-so's newsletter and throw it away, you should renew immediately. It you find yourself unable to determine whether bodily harm or a lawsuit is best suited to address an insult to your intelligence, you are truly fortunate. These provokers are providing a window into your soul; a window through which you can view your deepest issues.

On that note, I wish you all continued success, health and happiness.

Until we meet again... au revoir.