Why Apple Could Withstand Tech Crunch

Updated from 12:59 p.m. EST

Plummeting consumer-technology sales could spell trouble for Apple(AAPL Quote)'s stock during the coming months, according to Morgan Stanley. Other analysts, however, argue that the portents of doom may be exaggerated.

Citing a survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers, Morgan cut its Apple price target from $105 to $95 Wednesday and warned that the tech bellwether's share price could suffer.

"We see near-term downside to Apple shares in light of weaker demand, especially for the iPhone, where expectations remain high," wrote Morgan analyst Kathryn Huberty in a note.

The analyst pointed to some key findings from Morgan's survey to illustrate this point. Even after recent price cuts, for example, Huberty notes that the number of consumers expressing an "extreme" interest in the iPhone was down from 7% in February 2007 to 5% now.

Morgan also lowered its Mac growth projection to flat, explaining that PC purchases over the next year are expected to be just half their 2005 levels. The survey also suggested that iPod penetration has peaked in the U.S. and new purchases by existing iPod owners this holiday season will fall far short of past years.

Huberty explained that only 6% of survey respondents who own an iPod plan to upgrade this holiday season, from over 40% in 2005. "Our sum of the parts analysis now assumes iPod is in permanent decline," she wrote.

Apple's stock has certainly struggled during recent months and is currently trading around the $100 mark, well below its 52-week high of $202.96.