RIM Reaper Comes for Tech Faithful

Today, we've had RIM's bad news, and on Thursday, investors will brace for Nokia's(NOK) analyst day, where many analysts expect the company to tear down its 2009 forecasts for cell phone industry shipments.

Second, this is no time for tech sellers of things under the current economic dynamic of consumers worried about job security and plunging house prices. This was understandably the fate for a company like Dell(DELL), which was already reduced to middling growth and has seen its global market share evaporate.

But with RIM's warning, we're again in the rarified air of companies that offer products that are hugely popular and enjoy a competitive advantage. Shares of GPS-device maker Garmin(GRMN), for example, are just a week removed from their 52-week low as investors have continued to lose faith in the stock after the company warned in late October that its fiscal 2008 results would miss estimates.

And even mighty Apple(AAPL) was reduced to Black Friday come-ons for everything the company sells, other than its iPhone, now perhaps truly the Last Gadget Standing.

The stronger tech businesses right now are those that are keeping the customer tethered. Companies like IBM(IBM) and Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) are making it through on the strength of their IT services (and printing cartridges, in H-P's case).

Similarly, some software companies are holding up well, due to the recurring revenue scheme. Salesforce.com(CRM) is now trading at levels it was at six weeks ago. How many tech companies can claim that?

RIM investors are now left returning to that same question: How long is it going to last? The problem is, the answer may be more complicated than waiting for the return of a healthier consumer and business customer. RIM's market share is more precarious as customers have more incentive to shop around, and both the iPhone and a reported upcoming smartphone by Nokia are taking dead aim at high-end BlackBerrys.