Goldman, Guard Your People

Hintz is more concerned about Goldman's claims that it can continue to make money in the same way it has done for the past several years. For example, the firm's use of leverage will have to come down further under pressure from regulators, and a difficult environment for hedge funds will hurt revenues in the firm's prime brokerage business, which provides capital and services to hedge funds.

Goldman's major rival, Morgan Stanley (MS Quote) seems to acknowledge that the world has changed, and is working much harder to turn itself into a diversified company like JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote), Citigroup (C Quote) or Bank of America (BAC Quote), which do business with both large companies and retail clients.

Goldman, on the other hand, has been saying that its business model is largely unchanged. Hintz doesn't believe the firm's statements.

"On one side of its mouth Goldman is saying everything can remain the same, but the areas they point to for growth are noncapital-intensive businesses -- which is a logical move if you're worried about declining trading revenues," Hintz says. "My guess is they're trying to be coy to maintain confidence in the marketplace."

Because it is a bank holding company with access to funding from the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs does not appear in danger of running out of money. But it still has to articulate a plan for profitability going forward.

Goldman has always been shy about telling investors how it makes its money -- which wasn't a problem when it was making money. Now analysts are predicting that Goldman will lose money for the first time, so suddenly it matters a lot more, particularly since there is a broad perception in the market that many of the things investment banks did to make money are under attack by both the market and a tough new regulatory environment.