Sirius XM Won't Be Caught in Big Three Pileup

Sirius XM could certainly use the cash, too, considering it has roughly $1 billion in debt that comes due in 2009. Concerns over the company's ability to refinance the bulk of its debt has been a major source of distress and anguish for Sirius XM and its shareholders.

But if that scenario were to play out, Sirius XM would then have to focus more on other key metrics, such as its churn rate and conversion rate, both of which have been weak. Churn measures the frequency that subscribers leave the service. In the third quarter, Sirius XM's churn rate rose to 1.7% from 1.6% in the year-ago quarter. The conversion rate, which measures how many free trials from auto installations turn into paying subscribers, fell to 47% from 50.7% a year ago.

Even if Sirius XM were to escape the carnage in the auto industry, it would be little comfort to shareholders that have stuck with the stock as long as they have. The stock has fallen almost 95% year to date and 90% since the merger in late July. At 15 cents a share, though, any good news for the satellite company's survival is good news.

"The core question for them is how many cars are being sold in the U.S., as that's the key driver to growth of their addressable market," Ratcliffe says. "[A bankruptcy by an automaker] would've made a big difference in the days before the companies merged. Now that there's one company, the scenario is much better."