Gas Prices Won't Stay Down Forever

More mouths to feed, cars to fuel, homes to power and factories to run will eventually create higher prices, even if the U.S. takes an extended pause. And while few predict that oil will reach its July height any time soon, the outlook for prices further down the road is still severe.

Frederic Murphy, who once oversaw medium-term forecasting models at the Energy Information Administration and is now a professor at Temple University, says that "prices climbing back to $100 per barrel over the next three or four years is not unreasonable."

"But, it's all subject to whether the global economy recovers," he adds.

Robert Montefusco, an oil broker with the London-based firm Sucdon, acknowledges that prices will remain hindered by recessionary fears for some time. He estimates that crude prices could slip $5 further over the next month or so. But he also rattles off a slew of factors threatening to fuel a surge in prices once the downturn subsides.

"The problem is, right now there's a lack of investment in the oil industry, and if the economy stars to recover, even slightly, and demand starts picking up, and OPEC has placed its cuts in the market, and we have any hurricanes or any trouble in Nigeria, oil prices will once again come up," Montefusco says.

Fiscal initiatives announced by governments from Europe to Asia will help that recovery. Global interest-rate cuts, support for the banking industry, and stimulus packages have already been announced to spur growth or at least prevent a major recession.