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Stanley Bing: I See Recovery in July

For all of Stanley Bing's columns on, click here.

Word comes from an official at Bank of America that the decompression that we're in right now will end in the fourth quarter of 2009. I don't know about you, but I don't want to wait that long.

This isn't the first time I've heard the prediction, though. I was in a staff meeting last week and a financial type iterated the same supposition. I asked him whether, since he had a handle on the whole prognostication gambit, he could arrange for the turnaround to happen a bit earlier. He said no.

But my question remains. If a consensus of opinion is now building on the issue of resurgence timing, why shouldn't some of us stake out a bullish position at this juncture? I'm positing that the voices now being heard are from the more conservative members of the sector, who are gently and tentatively sending out feelers, as groundhogs do on their given day, for signs of spring. Is it possible that some of the more bold among us, who have not been shy for the last 10 years or so, motivate themselves to do what they do best?

On any given day, there are indeed signs of regeneration in the metrics supplied by the vast river of information extruded from the Internet. I'll admit to you, today doesn't look so hot. All the more reason for those who make predictions for a living to step up to the bar and take some control of the situation.

Let me be the first to put my toe in the water. The current systemic breakdown of international corporate capitalism and its associated markets in credit, debt and consumer goods will begin showing signs of improvement by the first quarter of 2009. By early summer, with oil prices quite low, vast segments of the economy will be kick-started into moderate growth. The worst of the mortgage meltdown will be past by that time, and consumer confidence will be starting to grow. Europe is now in free fall, the dollar will be stronger against the euro and the credit markets will start humming into action again. By early third quarter '09, signs of Greed will once again appear on Wall Street, with the expected, simultaneous reduction in Fear.
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